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lordandrei

Andrei's Universe

One man's journey from infinity to nothingness


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politics, voting, Obama
lordandrei

Could Karl Rove have done something right?!?!

Karl Rove has called an Obama Landslide.

Rove (the engineer of the Bush campaign) has called a 338-200 EV Victory for Obama, with the junior senator picking up the votes for PA, VA, OH, FL, and NV. Rove hands the dead heat ties of MO, NC, and ND to McCain.

States that he have a within 4% on the polls add another potential (albeit unlikely) 68 EVs. The 1% or less states: ND, IN, NC, and MO are 40 EVs on their own. 378-160 would approach the routing of Bob Dole by Clinton (379-159).

I never thought I'd say this, but thanks to Karl Rove, I'm going to allow myself to be mildly optimistic tonight.

I'll be leaving the office at 3. People who wish to join our news night feel free to show up any time after (say) 4:30.

I hope that tomorrow I will replace "Yes we can" with "Yes we did"
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I'm in the swing state of NC.. and honestly I wrestled with inner demons over to vote for the write in candidate that I felt strongly about, or to vote for Obama and get the lesser of two evils into the white house. Honestly I really REALLY wanted Ron Paul to get further than he did and there were a TON of people in the area that wanted him to get somewhere as well. I just don't think he got his views clearly explained enough.

Still he got enough votes to be considered a write in candidate.

So this morning I had to make a serious decision, let my vote count or throw it away. All I can say is I hope that I made the right decision.

Edited at 2008-11-04 05:11 pm (UTC)

I hope you made the right decision above all else

If you voted and voted with your heart and mind... then you made the right decision.

This is completely regardless of if your candidate wins or loses.

Obviously, I'm biased... I'd love to chat off line about why you found Obama to be the lesser of two evils. Obviously.. I'd love to chat off line period.

Miss you.

Re: I hope you made the right decision above all else

I fall dead center on a lot of the issues. I'm conservative on a lot of things, but gay marriages and women's choice are two hot buttons that tend to not fall in line with the Conservative Republican stance. However, I do believe that my money is my money is my money. Do I think the current system is working.. HELL NO... do I think that change is needed... yes. Do I think that either candidate can do EVERYTHING he claims.. No way in hell. Do I think that the poor are getting their fair share... not on your life. Do I think that having the first black president will fix all of our country's biases and problems with race/ gender, again, not on your life.

The bipartisan system to me is broken. Badly, broken. We see it all too often when the ballots are just SO close to call. We've seen it with Bush and we might just see it again.

Election reform is something that I want to see. I want the system to work for the people again, not for big companies and lobbyists. I want to see the president stand for the people... not for businesses.

I'll be honest. For Governor of NC I voted completely against the way I've voted in the past. I voted Libertarian for both Governor and Lt. Governor. I would never have thought to vote that way a couple of years ago.

Also, I have yet to see anything about the freedoms that have been taken away from us by Bush being repealed and fixed. Our right to privacy has been grossly invaded and not many people are saying a damn thing about this.. (oh that's right go back to sleep we shouldn't know about that..)

It's the old sketch from Bill Hicks...


I'm all for optimism today.

At the same time, if the final EC map matches Rove's exactly, I think that would be as much a concern as anything.

I think he's trying to get Dems to be complacent and not vote.

I am also mildly optimistic though, but only because if you count all the states where Obama was most recently polling at 50% or higher, he gets 278 electoral votes. That's my conservative forecast but I think it'll be anywhere between there and 311.

to be complacent

Either that, or just be able to claim tomorrow about how smart he was so that he can get himself some cushy conservative thinktank (hah!) job.

I don't think so. I've watched Karl Rove, and he's made the transition to political wonk pretty successfully--and his living now is determined by his accuracy.

There are two wildcards, though: right now, we're seeing record turnout--and historically that has helped Republicans. However, we're also seeing a record turnout of young voters--which historically has helped Democrats. So it's all up in the air.

Regardless, I think it's going to be hard to say that Obama, if he wins (and right now I'd say it's up in the air because we don't know who will show up--and the polls are worthless because they predict from a 6% to a 12% swing in favor of Democrats, which would be unprecedented), he cannot claim a mandate. In fact, one of the more interesting trends in recent days was comments from people endorsing Obama who were endorsing him not for his specific policies, but on the hope that he will not carry out his specific policies. (Example. Colin Powell supported Obama on the hope that Obama will not fulfill his promise of an immediate withdraw from Iraq.)

It's hard to claim a mandate when your supporters hope you don't fulfill your promises.

Whoever wins the election has a "mandate."

That's what winning the election means.

By "mandate" I don't mean "has the right to govern", but "can implement all his policies unquestioned."

Anticipate very strong fights opposing Obama's health care package and his election promise to withdraw from Iraq immediately, as well as fights against his call to increase capital gains taxes.

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